SpaceX and CoreWeave Helped Turn Dell Into an AI Rocket. Earnings Could Bring It Back to Earth

Dell (DELL) has surged 247% this year, but after last quarter's 64% EPS beat, merely matching $4.80 guidance likely won't sustain its current multiple.

SpaceX and CoreWeave (CRWV), Dell's two largest AI customers, are spending heavily, but published capital plans don't equal booked orders, and this quarter reveals the gap.

Dell's gross margin fell from 21% to 18% as AI server mix grew, with giant buyers extracting pricing power that limits operating leverage.

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Dell Technologies ( NYSE:DELL ) reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, and the setup is unusual. Shares have climbed 247.32% year to date, powered by a story investors know by heart: SpaceX ( NASDAQ:SPCX ) and CoreWeave ( NASDAQ:CRWV ), two of Dell's largest customers, are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, and Dell is the hardware supplier catching most of it.

The stock started the year near $124.72 and closed Monday at $433.19, well ahead of most large-cap peers.

With backlog and known customer spending making solid numbers likely, the relevant question is whether good numbers are good enough after a move of this size.

Four things decide how the report is received. How quickly the AI backlog converts into recognized revenue, whether new orders keep outpacing conversion, what margins look like as the mix shifts toward a handful of very large buyers, and what management guides to for the balance of the year.

Dell entered the year trading like a hardware company. It exits August up 235.33% over the trailing twelve months and 821.53% over five years, closer to a growth multiple than an infrastructure one.

Analysts have followed the move higher. The consensus price target is $508.78, with 19 buy ratings, 8 holds, and no sells. Forward earnings trade around 24x, defensible if AI revenue keeps compounding at current rates.

Recent price action is less exuberant. Shares are down 9.72% in the past week and roughly flat over the past month, so some of the pre-earnings enthusiasm has cooled. Recent insider activity is net selling.

Polymarket assigns a 0.905 probability that Dell beats consensus non-GAAP EPS this quarter. That reflects confidence in a beat itself, with the stock's reaction to one still an open question.