There Are Plenty of Eli Lilly Bulls: Here’s What They Aren’t Telling You

LLY beat Q2 earnings by 27% and raised full-year revenue guidance to $87B, yet the stock is a Hold as net prices fell 13% and management warned prices will keep dropping.

LLY trades at 37 times trailing earnings but has lagged the S&P 500 this year, gaining just 6% versus SPY's 12%.

Even after beating Q2 estimates by 13%, LLY dropped 14% on earnings day, signaling the market demands flawless execution at current prices.

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At $1,137.76, Eli Lilly ( NYSE:LLY ) is a Hold. The bull chorus is loud, the fundamentals are real, and the stock is still a laggard against the market this year, which is exactly why the counterarguments deserve airtime before anyone chases it.

Lilly is the incretin franchise. Mounjaro and Zepbound combined for nearly $14.87 billion in Q2 alone, anchoring a portfolio that also spans oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. A $994.9 billion market cap and a rapidly expanding late-stage pipeline have made it the default long in large-cap pharma. The question is what price that story is worth.

Q2 revenue hit $22.97 billion, up 47.67% year over year, and EPS of $8.38 beat consensus by 27.27%, extending a four-quarter beat streak. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion.

The pipeline reads like a bull's wish list. Retatrutide showed "profound levels of weight loss" across three Phase 3 trials, with a BLA submission planned for Q1 2027. VERVE-102 cut PCSK9 by up to 88% and LDL-C by up to 62% in a single dose. On a forward basis, shares trade at roughly 24 times next year's earnings, which the bull case argues is cheap for a company compounding revenue near 50%.

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Almost all the growth is volume, not price. Volume rose 60% while realized prices fell 13%, and U.S. prices declined roughly 9% excluding rebate adjustments. Management itself flagged that medical-exception pricing is "maybe a short-term thing" and that net price will "go down for sure" as CVS access opens.