Strategy Is Down More Than 50% in 12 Months. One Analyst Thinks the Stock Is About to Triple

Mark Palmer's $435 price target on MSTR implies 200% upside, as the stock shed 56% over 12 months tracking bitcoin lower.

MSTR's 56% drawdown dwarfs bitcoin-adjacent peers COIN (down 40%) and MARA (down 25%), yet MSTR carries the steepest implied upside across the group.

MSTR surged 45% in the past month as bitcoin bounced 24%, but its $6.7B convertible debt and beta of 3.6 make position sizing critical.

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Strategy currently trades at $142.80 while the average Wall Street price target sits at $225.93. That gap works out to roughly 58% of implied upside, and one bull is aiming much higher.

Strategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) is the former MicroStrategy, an enterprise analytics software company that reinvented itself as the world's largest corporate bitcoin holder. It now sits on 846,000 BTC, and its stock effectively trades as a leveraged proxy on the coin.

The gap between where MSTR trades and where analysts think it belongs matters because most of that spread traces back to a violent 12-month reset in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rather than any change in the underlying software business.

Bitcoin's Reversal Set Off a 56% Drawdown

The stock has fallen 56.41% over the past 12 months, a decline that dwarfs both the S&P 500's 18.65% gain and bitcoin's own 27.78% slide over the same window. Strategy is essentially a levered bet on BTC, and when the coin fell to roughly $80,000, mark-to-market accounting did the rest.

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Q2 2026 showed the damage. EPS came in at -$24.45 versus $3.07 consensus, missing expectations by 895.3%. Revenue of $122.37M grew 6.9% YoY but came in 1.7% below estimates. The $8.22B net loss was driven almost entirely by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on digital assets. Q1 was worse, with a $12.54B net loss on a $14.46 billion write-down. The market is also pricing structural risk: $6.7B of convertible debt and $400.7M in quarterly preferred dividends against bitcoin carried at $49.7B versus a $63.9B cost basis.