SpaceX Stock Just Crashed Below Its IPO Price: Here’s the Bull Case Nobody Can Ignore

SpaceX (SPCX) stock is back around its IPO price, putting investors in a familiar dilemma: Is this a buying opportunity or another warning sign? Shares dropped nearly 5% on Thursday to $132.69, slipping beneath the company's $135 IPO price and ending a streak of six consecutive closes above that benchmark. The decline came after SPCX repeatedly struggled to break through $150, the price at which it opened on June 12.

For a stock that once surged to $225.60, the reversal has been dramatic. SpaceX has already fallen nearly 40% from its June peak and traded as low as $104.83 on Aug. 3. Yet the underlying business is growing at a remarkable pace. That makes the question of whether to buy SPCX stock more complicated than simply looking at the chart.

SpaceX Stock Is Struggling to Regain Its IPO Momentum

SPCX is now trading right around its IPO price and roughly 40% below its record high.

The immediate pressure is partly technical, with $150 emerging as a major resistance level. There is also a structural issue. SpaceX continues to bring previously restricted shares into the public market. About 319 million shares became eligible for trading on Aug. 20, following roughly 911 million shares unlocked earlier in August. More supply could emerge later this year, potentially keeping volatility elevated.

The biggest argument against aggressively buying the dip is valuation. SpaceX's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is about 23 times, far above the aerospace sector median of 1.3x.

Those multiples are extraordinary for an aerospace company. SpaceX, however, is increasingly becoming much more than a rocket manufacturer.

Investors are assigning substantial value to Starlink, artificial intelligence, satellite connectivity, and future computing infrastructure. That means today's sales multiple is effectively a bet that SpaceX's revenue will grow dramatically in the years ahead.

SpaceX's Latest Results Make the Dip Interesting

SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company was impressive on the revenue side.

Second-quarter revenue jumped 92% year-over-year (YoY) to $7.81 billion, beating expectations. The company's net loss narrowed to $541 million, or $0.09 per share, while adjusted EBITDA surged 191% to $3.5 billion.