Bond yields rise modestly after Trump’s dividend pledge

Bond yields ticked up slightly on Thursday, after President Trump pledged to send a $5,000 dividend to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at roughly 4.96 percent, roughly 1.3 basis points above where it opened. The note closed at its highest point since April 2007, before the 2008 financial crisis.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield , meanwhile, increased by more than 8 basis points Thursday, closing at above 5.36 percent. That marked the 30-year bond yield’s highest closing point since April 2002.

Trump promised Wednesday to give all U.S. adults $5,000 if the GOP maintains control of both chambers of Congress in November.

“If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them … because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” the president said at the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) midterm convention in Dallas.

Trump referenced his administration sending a $1,776 dividend to more than 1.5 million U.S. service members last year. The administration used funding appropriated for military housing subsidies under the GOP-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act for the dividends, which were tax-free .

There were roughly 270 million adults in the country as of July 2025, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau . Sending $5,000 to every U.S. adult would cost the federal government more than $1.3 trillion — greater than the amount it has paid in interest on the national debt so far this fiscal year.

The U.S. debt crossed the $40 trillion threshold last month, less than 10 years after it surpassed $20 trillion during Trump’s first term.

Mounting public debt has contributed to rising bond yields around the world . In the U.S., the 10 and 30-year notes have set new multiyear highs in recent weeks. Persistent inflation — which remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate amid the Iran war — has also contributed to increasing bond yields.

Multiple Republican lawmakers pushed back on Trump’s dividend proposal, arguing it would be fiscally irresponsible and drive up inflation.

“Sadly, most ‘conservatives’ don’t even know (or care) that the president doesn’t have the constitutional authority to spend $$, or send out ‘dividend’ checks without Congress,” Former Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) wrote on social media Thursday.

Vice President Vance said Wednesday the Trump administration will use revenue it has collected via tariffs to fund the dividends. So far, this fiscal year, the U.S. has taken in $154 billion in tariff revenue, according to the Treasury Department .

“What the president’s just saying … to the American people, ‘If you keep us in power and allow us to continue to do these things, then you’re going to share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that … we’re creating in the United States of America,’” Vance said on Fox News’s “Hannity.”