Trump says oil relief is coming after the midterms as crude tops $100

As U.S. crude prices surged past $100 this week for the first time since May, President Trump gave Americans a message they probably don't want to hear: The war driving oil prices up isn't ending yet, and he says prices won't come down until after the midterm elections.

He delivered the news Sept. 9, when at Joint Base Andrews, as reported by CNBC . He added that the war with Iran, now in its seventh month, would end "immediately after" said election.

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The timeliness of Trump's comments came a day before West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, surged above $103 a barrel on Sept. 10. That was up more than 7% in a day and roughly 50% from its July 2 low, according to Bloomberg .

The surge has put energy prices at the center of the cost-of-living debate, just in time for the November 3 midterms. More expensive crude means higher gasoline and diesel prices, but the effects reach much further, pushing up transportation and shipping costs that can eventually show up in consumer prices.

Trump argues that Iran is prolonging the conflict to influence the U.S. election and won't be able to hold out once Americans have voted. But his prediction also leaves consumers facing nearly two more months of uncertainty as the war continues to disrupt oil flows and shipping routes across the Middle East.

The inflation pipeline is filling up again

Asking Americans to endure more economic pain from oil prices comes as government data shows that producer inflation is ratcheting up again. On Sept. 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index climbed 0.4% in August and 5.4% annually. As CNBC reported , the annual reading was higher than economists' forecasts.

Historically, producer inflation has reached consumers, often months later. In May, agricultural economists at Purdue University estimated that rising energy, transportation, packaging and processing costs can take three to six months to work their way through the food supply chain and reach grocery shelves.

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok has also been tracking signs of renewed inflation in recent months, pointing to the ISM Services Prices Paid Index, a less widely followed measure within the monthly PMI report.