CEA: Year 2026 resembles 1991

NEW DELHI: The year 2026 resembles 1991, and it could be deemed an inflection point for the Indian economy, which has been facing not only external challenges but also structural constraints in manufacturing, energy, agriculture and technology, chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday.Addressing the ISID-IDRA national conference, Nageswaran further said that, in the global context, India is a source of macroeconomic stability and resilience, which sometimes tend to get forgotten in the noisy world of social media narratives.“2026 resembles 1991, and many of you immediately should not think that when we talk about the word resemblance, it is not the same as identical. Identical means that you have the same balance of payments crisis.“No. The point is, it was an inflection point for us in 1991, and 2026 is also, or even 2025, could be deemed as inflection points for us,” he said. Nageswaran said that while the 1991 balance of payments crisis brought four decades of accumulated constraints to a head — a moment of reckoning more than a passing shock — the external stress of 2026 has brought India to a fork in its growth journey and invites a fundamental re-examination of strategy.“In 2026, the challenge is not only external. Structural constraints in manufacturing, energy, agriculture and technology add to the pressure,” he said.Nageswaran said govts and industries must focus on building domestic capabilities and reducing dependence on supplies that could be restricted during geopolitical tensions.“The 21st century will be marked by a geopolitical contest for real resources,” he said, adding that the key question was how much leverage a country could exercise to secure what it needs. Nageswaran pointed out that the worst shocks now arrive not because of accidents of nature, but by design. “Just as last week, we saw China announcing an export licensing regime for tunnel boring machines and for many other products of infrastructure goods, which India will be needing,” he said.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.