What Rising Delivery Forecasts Say About Rivian's Stock Prospects

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Rivian shares have risen more than 10% in recent sessions after the company reported strong quarterly results and raised its delivery guidance for the year.

Analysts remain divided on Rivian's outlook, with Needham upgrading the stock to a $23 price target while Deutsche Bank downgraded it, leaving a consensus Hold rating.

Rivian faces near-term risks including margin pressure from its new R2 launch, rising material costs, the expired EV tax credit, and ongoing cash burn.

Shares in electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) have spent much of the past year going sideways, bouncing around within a well-worn range as the market waits for the company to prove itself. For context, this is the same Rivian that shed more than 95% of its value after its post-IPO high in 2021.

The company did report a solid set of results at the end of July, and management has also raised its delivery guidance, but these have done little to break the pattern.

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There have been some signs of life in recent sessions, though. Rivian shares shot up about 10% over the 5 days ending Aug. 21, and it's worth asking whether the market is finally starting to appreciate the improving story beneath the surface.

The increased guidance remains at the heart of the bull case, a statement of confidence in customer demand. The question now is whether that signal, perhaps initially overlooked, is what finally lifts the shares out of their long sideways drift, or if the bears' argument carries too much weight.

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To start with, it's worth stepping back, because the past year of flattish trading masks a more encouraging long-term trend. Zoom out, and Rivian's shares have been quietly grinding higher for more than two years, carving out a long series of higher lows. While they haven't broken out to the upside, this isn't so much a pattern of a business falling apart, as much as one that's slowly winning the market's confidence.

The recent results only strengthen that case. Rivian beat analyst expectations on the headline numbers and grew revenue by more than 27% year over year, all while raising guidance. For a company still deep in its expensive growth phase, that combination of accelerating sales and rising confidence suggests the market may have been overly skeptical.

→ What Rising Delivery Forecasts Say About Rivian's Stock Prospects