12,700 US-based tech professionals returned to India in 9 months; 2026 may beat last year's record as H-1B visa uncertainty grows, but returnees face steep salary cuts at home

Thousands of US-based Indian techies are returning to India to a job market that does not offer similar salary levels. But, the number of such returnees is increasing as visa uncertainties weigh under the Donald Trump administration.As the number of technology professionals returning from the US continues to rise, India could be heading towards a reversal in the movement of talent between the two countries.Between January and September 2026, around 12,700 white-collar technology workers returned to India, according to data sourced from staffing firm Xpheno by ET. The tally is already approaching the record 15,100 returnees recorded in the whole of 2025, and is expected to surpass that figure by the end of this year.Indian techies return from the USThe increase has been consistent over the past few years. Xpheno's data puts the number of professionals who moved back to India at 7,200 in 2023, rising to 9,800 in 2024 before reaching last year's peak. The figures cover white-collar technology workers moving in either direction between India and the US, rather than only those travelling on H-1B visas.The growing flow of returnees could eventually leave India with a net gain in technology talent from the US, meaning more professionals would be moving back home than heading there.For now, however, the outbound movement remains higher. Nearly 14,500 people moved from India to the US up to September this year, Xpheno's figures show.Kamal Karanth, cofounder of Xpheno, told the financial daily that the number of technology professionals returning to India this year was on track to exceed the 2025 total, further narrowing the difference between inbound and outbound talent flows.He also indicated that the recent H-1B move could accelerate the shift, potentially pushing the number of returnees above the count of technology professionals leaving India for the US.The changing pattern of migration is partly linked to uncertainty over US immigration rules and economic policies, along with the tightening of visa regulations over the past few years, experts said. Rising layoffs at large technology companies in the US during the last two to three years could also be contributing to the trend.Xpheno's assessment draws on several sources, including its internal database of candidates, its recruitment management system and job boards used for hiring in India and overseas. The staffing firm examines these records from a recruiter's standpoint to identify patterns in cross-border talent movement, professional experience and compensation.Job issuesReturning to India with years of professional experience does not necessarily make finding a suitable job any easier. The current hiring environment has been particularly difficult for technology professionals coming back from the US, said Kamal Karanth, cofounder of staffing firm Xpheno.“Considering the dynamics and trends of active demand in the Indian job market, it has not been the best of times for US returnees,” Karanth said.He pointed out that the Indian technology sector has struggled to maintain consistent hiring momentum since the surge in recruitment in 2021. “After the hiring buoyancy of 2021, the Indian tech sector’s talent action has not had a period of stability extending beyond a quarter,” he noted.Neeti Sharma, chief executive of staffing firm TeamLease Digital, said companies in India are taking a more selective approach to recruitment. Rather than treating overseas experience as a major advantage, employers are placing greater emphasis on candidates' specialised skills and relevant work experience.According to Sharma, the strongest demand is for professionals with expertise in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, data and product leadership. Skills in cloud computing, cybersecurity and implementing AI solutions across enterprises are also sought after.Pay is another significant hurdle for professionals returning from the US. Depending on their role, employer, location and project experience, many may have to settle for salaries equivalent to just 25% to 33% of what they earned overseas, experts said.Xpheno's data puts the average annual salary of a full-stack engineer working in the US on an H-1B visa at $105,000, with earnings typically ranging from $70,000 to $150,000. In India, however, professionals with comparable skills and experience who rank among the top 1% can earn between $20,000 and $32,000 annually.Indian employers are largely maintaining compensation levels in line with domestic salary structures instead of matching pay packages offered in overseas markets. As a result, professionals returning from the US may need to lower their salary expectations to secure suitable positions.Sharma said applied AI professionals in India can earn annual salaries of around Rs 16 lakh to Rs 35 lakh, equivalent to approximately $16,800 to $36,800. Senior specialists, however, can command significantly higher compensation.Global capability centres (GCCs) in India are another potential source of employment for returning professionals. However, those seeking jobs at these centres must compete with experienced candidates who are already available in the domestic talent pool.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.