The 2027 COLA estimate just changed — again. But few Americans noticed. 3 moves to make before it’s officially announced

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.

The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) can make or break the finances of retirees, as it determines how much benefits will increase to keep pace with inflation.

Since COLAs are very important to beneficiaries, advocacy groups make predictions throughout the year, offering insight into how much extra money (if any) Social Security recipients will collect in the coming year.

Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one

A single line on your car insurance policy could be inflating your premium by up to 30% — here's what to change

A record 45% of central banks plan to grow gold reserves — and many investors are following suit. Get your free gold IRA guide from Priority Gold

Over the course of 2026, the estimates for the 2027 COLA have been all over the place.

At the start of the year, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), an advocacy group for older Americans, was predicting a 2.5% COLA for 2027 (1) — a smaller raise than the 2.8% COLA awarded for 2026.

Then, economic conditions took an unexpected turn, and inflation ran substantially higher than expected in 2026.

That sudden change is important because the COLA is directly tied to inflation: The rate for the coming year is calculated (2) based on the current year's third-quarter changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

As inflation remained stubbornly high, TSCL revised its forecast upward throughout the year.

TSCL's forecast peaked at 3.9% (3) in May, while the most recent estimate — the final one before the official COLA announcement on Oct. 14 — is slightly more conservative, projecting a 3.5% benefit bump (4) in 2027.

This would still be the highest increase since 2023, when benefits rose by 8.7% (5).

For many Americans, these shifts in COLA predictions have largely gone unnoticed. In fact, around three-quarters of adults (74%) expressed interest in learning more about how inflation affects their Social Security benefits, according to a 2025 survey (6) conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide.

Meanwhile, research from the Social Security Administration (SSA) suggests that just over one-quarter (27%) of working-age adults understand how Social Security benefits are calculated (7).

Still, although many Americans may not know the finer points of how COLAs are calculated, most retirees (89%) didn't believe their benefits were keeping pace with inflation, according to TSCL's 2026 Senior Survey (8).