Tesla Q3 preview: Delivery outlook, cash flow, and a dash of merger speculation on tap

Tesla ( TSLA ) will report third quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, with profits and cash flow squarely in focus, with a dash of merger speculation.

Tesla is expected to report Q3 revenue of $28.13 billion, flat year over year, per Bloomberg consensus. Adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.44, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.66 billion.

Consensus EBIT of $760 million, a 2.7% margin, would be a step up from $400 million and 1.4% in Q2.

Tesla stock is still down about 17% this year, a test for investors, but typically the company rallies on stronger deliveries in the back half of the year.

Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 486,532, down 2% from a year ago but well ahead of Bloomberg consensus of 463,000. Energy storage deployments came in at 13.7 GWh, up from 12.5 GWh a year ago and Q2's 13.5 GWh.

Tesla's sales in its key territories are moving in different directions. The US is still feeling the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which set off a buying rush in last year's third quarter before it expired. Cox Automotive estimates Tesla sold around 144.1K EVs in the US in Q3, down nearly 20% year over year. That was still about 54% of the US EV market, more than all other brands combined.

Tesla's Shanghai, however, posted a September wholesale volume of 95,366 vehicles, its best month of 2026, with exports up 58%, while domestic sales fell 9%. In Europe, Tesla registrations across the EU, UK, and EFTA rose 43.3% from January through August, per ACEA .

Free cash flow (FCF) is again the number to watch, and it's expected to be deeply negative. Per Tesla's own sell-side analyst consensus , Wall Street sees Q3 FCF at -$4.51 billion, with capital expenditures climbing to $7.77 billion for the quarter. A year ago, FCF was nearly $4 billion.

Tesla has guided to more than $25 billion in capex for 2026, vs. roughly $8.5 billion spent last year. The money is going to Optimus production lines, AI compute, the Cybercab ramp, and the Terafab chip plant it is building with SpaceX.

Elon Musk made clear over the weekend where he thinks that spending pays off. "Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla's value," Tesla's CEO posted on X on Saturday.

Tesla began commercial Cybercab service in Austin on Sept. 3, but federal regulators have questions. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued Tesla a special order with 21 requests on how it self-certified the Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals, as compliant with federal safety standards. Tesla asked for an extension to Nov. 20. NHTSA granted 30 days instead , making answers due Oct. 30.